Good evening ladies and gentlemen….What a weekend….
Firstly I want to thank you all for the love and prayers you sent to my mother. She is at home now getting the rest she needs. A severe case of Influenza, plus other complications but she is all good by the grace of God. Mad Love for your support guys…
So here is tonight’s breakdown…I will require some commitment from you…A few exercises that I will recommend to help you come to your own conclusions regarding price so that you can build confidence In your analysis in the future.
Remember, the hybrid is about practice…
The first chart is Bitcoin on the 10 hour…
No emas, No M levels…Just straight-up Vectors…
Notice the yellow lines…
It appears that the MM seems to be spiking the price up and if you look closer you will see the collection of wicks to the upside, and price coming back down.
Upon closer inspection, you can see that every time price came down, notice the candles that appear. Notice the dark grey candles engulfing the white candles. (Look at the green arrows).
What does this tell us? When looking at higher time frames, we need to train our eyes to be aware of the “aftermath” of when price moves down aggressively, and comes back up, which eventually leads to price going down again…This is what I like to call the “pressure” of price…
Pressure implies when there is an influx of orders coming in at a particular point where the MM facilitates those orders and leads the prey into the slaughterhouse to only move against those orders. Refer to the yellow arrow in the chart. Notice how MM allows traders to buy from this point whilst hitting the short liquidations, and then forces price back down and creates pressure to continue moving the price lower.
TASK: Go back in the charts, Ideally the 1hr or higher and try and find points in the chart where the MM forces price to a particular point and aggressively moves in the opposite direction and continues to do so…Here you will be training the eyes to be aware of “pressure” of price. Now we can dive deeper into this and start talking about the velocity of price w but i simplify that for you and say the “Speed” of candles.
Our next chart is the 5hr time frame.
Something sticks out….No vectors to the downside. Naturally, you will want to try and find vectors as this would denote the idea of “pressure form the MM to mark price up or down”
Yet we do not see any vectors…What does this lead to? Well, we can see that on the 5hr, no vectors could suggest that there is no interest in this zone, yet the next image “No Vectors” suggests otherwise. Consider this…Notice where the blue box is on the 5hr chart…Price is in exactly the same point where they had sold off from…Could this be the clue that bitcoin will drop lower?
TASK: Go back in the charts and train the eyes to see the result of price coming back into a zone that has no vectors on a higher time frame.
The purpose of this task is to train you to ask the question:
“What reason could they go back towards that zone? Why not go up? Surely, by vector principle, we would assume they would not have an interest there?
This leads me to the next chart…
The presence of vectors.
Dropping down just the one-time frame from the 5hr, we have the 4hr time frame.
That big Green vector candle at the lows. Funny how the stopping volume candle (yellow arrow) and the green vector (green arrow) is giving us the idea that they are holding price when they attempt higher zones…Is this suggesting the MM is going to drop the price?
The next image shows bitcoin on the weekly Vwap.
A few things to consider here:
If bitcoin decides to make a move back up, this will be during the psychological ranges being formed this evening.
How wide the zones will be, will be based on how much liquidity resides above that the MM wants to take.
The hyblock image shows from the current price point there is $3.04B worth of long liquidations. Surely, as a Pattern Watcher, we would assume that tonight they would try and eat some of that liquidity, to only encourage more longs to come in and add to the existing long liquidations down below?
This is helping us understand the potential range that bitcoin could travel, now I know some of you trade these times, but please take into consideration that when the price is moving against you, YOU MUST ALLOCATE THE RIGHT AMOUNT OF RISK TO ABSORB THE STOP HUNT…
This leads me towards the “Stop Hunt/Confidence” Zone. What do we mean by confidence, sadly, this is where traders will start to believe bitcoin is going to the moon which will inevitably trap those traders and reverse the price back down.
Our next area is the “Vwap breach zone”.
This is the only area that would suggest that if bitcoin is going to move higher, a test of this zone will lead to red vectors breaking down, setting up the shorts and instantly reversing price back up. IF and ONLY IF price fails to hold above this Vwap zone, then we may get a repeat of what happened last weekend where bitcoin traded aggressively away from the Vwap at the start of this past week.
Conclusion:
Two zones that I am expecting bitcoin to take…the 16k region, (with the aggressive nature by the MM) 15800 zone.
Again, i could be wrong and bitcoin goes to 17k (Which happens to have ZERO liquidation points) but the 15k zone, which i have attached, shows a lovely sum of liquidity.
So what is the exercise and take away for you?
Yes i believe Bitcoin will break down this weekend or at least going into Monday.
But this step by step approach of observing the charts brings you that little bit closer to viewing the charts from the “Retail Traders” perspective, and the “MasterMind Market Maker”
Lets see what happens.
Mad Love
T
