Good evening all…Firstly, thank you for the MMM birthday wishes…She has had a whale of a time…So have I…
Let’s get down to Bitcoin and understand where we are…
Lots of info coming out about bitcoins resilience during all the turmoil that is happening around the financial world and the crypto world…
In my opinion…Still need money to come back into crypto…If wall street does a good job of putting fear into people’s minds, then the SP500 will sell off and more than likely so will Bitcoin.
“Bitcoin Optix Chart”
This chart simply shows us where everyone’s sentiment is regarding Bitcoin over the short term…A reading above 80 suggests Excessive Optimism and a reading below 20 suggests excessive pessimism.
As it stands bitcoin is at 43…So halfway…
People are mixed with what they feel.
This is consistent with bitcoins price action…There are those who favor higher prices and those who favor lower prices…
We use this chart to understand the extremes of people’s outlook on Bitcoin and we are not there yet. If you look closely at the image you will see I have marked off key areas I am paying attention to regarding this chart…
The blue line is showing a consolidation – which we can translate and safely say, yes bitcoin is flat and everyone is pretty much on the same page…
But where are closer to? Are we closer to pessimism or optimism?
I am gearing towards pessimism…The closer we get to the 20 reading the more I’m inclined to believe Bitcoin will reverse and move back up…That is on the assumption that bitcoin sentiment continues towards the pessimistic range (20).
“BITCOIN DAILY”
The Daily Chart is still showing the promise of holding out above the 800 ema…
We have seen this before but what has caught my attention is the fact that the volume below is most definitely absent.
This means that we are in an area prone to stop runs…
Consider the two arrows suggesting that stops are being hit…
I would expect the same to happen in the current price range we are in as of the time of writing this.
“BITCOIN 4HR CHART”
I have attached the volume profile of bitcoin on the 4hr and we can see we are stuck at the point of control (red line).
Remember, the point of control is where most of the transactions happen in a particular area…We won’t know fully if they are predominantly selling or buying…All we can do is look at how the price reacts from this range as each hour candle is printed.
The best way to use the POC is to see how the price moves away from the poc and comes back to test it…If it can hold above the POC for this current range then we anticipate higher prices…
However, this POC is sort of consolidating above the 28k zone…This leads me to the whole number principle…
Is the MM building his shorts?
“STOP RUN ANTICIPATION”
This chart is suggesting the likely journey Bitcoin could take on the assumption that we are going to see lower price action.
When price has been holding up for so long…There is a climatic moment we are waiting for…
You will see that the more we continue to spike lower to only move back into the range again….It suggests they are not done with this area…
I believe bitcoin will start to drop as we go into next week…The 30K region however could be the last stop before it does that…
The sooner we see bitcoin moving up and holding above the 800 ema on the daily with conviction…The more we can lean towards the 30k being hit and continuing to hold…
The thing you want to look out for is the speed of the area they try and take…
If they spike price higher, then they are only running for liquidity stops, (shorts Liquidations)
“12hr Hyblock Chart”
This is the first time i have seen this chart with very little liquidations…The most I have seen on this chart is 256m short liquidations at the 28156 zone…
“7 day Hyblock”
The 7 day chart has two particular zones….28900 and the 29000 – Collectively there are just shy of around 8.5B short liquidations in that zone.
Logic suggests that we see this zone due to it being the most concentrated orders….
That would be consistent with everyone who visually sees a bullish flag with the idea of a breakout higher to take those zones…
So to conclude…
I have a view that Bitcoin will be following the sp 500 over the next week or so…
Smart money chart is showing the blue line heading lower suggesting smart money is selling into retail…Hence why assets across the board are moving up…
One we start seeing the smart money line edging back up, we will then be on the side of shorts as everything will be dropping.
Given that bitcoin has been trading sideways, its always difficult to give a definitive answer as to what bitcoin will do…
My focus is simple…If bitcoin retains the 800 ema on the daily time frame, and does not break that zone…Then we may be looking for higher prices passing the 30k region…
However, volume has been light…Not showing reasons to move it away from this zone…
So I am of the impression that if Bitcoin drops below the 800 ema on the daily we will see 25k…
YOu are looking for the first sign of volatility…The second a vector candle appears on the 4hr time frame and shows promise of either higher prices or lower prices, that will be your clue as to what it’s preparing for….
I will keep you guys in the loop on what Bitcoin does tomorrow night once the markets fully return.
Mad Love
T
