Good evening everyone…
As the Easter Holiday comes to an end…It’s now time to prepare for probably one of the biggest weeks of data, (besides FOMC)…
Wednesday – CPI DATA
FOMC Minutes
Bank Of Canada Monetary Policy
Bank Of England Baily Speaks
Im not even going to dive into Thursday, I will give you heads-up on that as we get closer to that time.
So given that we have so much financial data coming out… The question on our minds is this…Are the charts being set up for a move-up or a shocking move-down?
Let’s get into it…
Bitcoin:
From Saturday night break down…Bitcoin so far has played into the 29k zone and does a great job of trapping the longs.
The red vector candle zone is taken and this current move in Bitcoin is consistent with a stop run. Question is how long will the stops run for?
Lets assume two scenarios:
1) We are currently preparing for the 3rd push to the upside.
2) Bitcoin Trades Sideways until this weeks data released on Wednesday…
1) If Bitcoin is going to continue wth this move to the upside, then we will assume the stop run is going to finalize at the 30k zone.
If they decide to continue higher we want to assume that the next zone of liquidity is going to be at the red cross drawn on the hyblock image where there is roughly around 3.9b short liquidations.
One would say that many longs are committed as there is 5.4B long liquidations at the 27560 zone.
But price is closer to the 30.5k region where the 3.9B short liquidations are.
So we have the liquidation story to justify higher prices and the 3rd push idea…
What about price action itself?
If you refer back to last nights update regarding Euro, The Chart “Structure Of Price” effectively is giving us the idea of what structure we could be going into with bitcoin…
Refer to the next image “Green Vector Continuation”
We are assuming that bitcoin will attempt to recover some of the green vectors from this move to the upside and hold out…If bitcoin can hold at the 50EMA on the 1hr we would see the continuation happen which would fall into the 3rd push logic.
So what if Bitcoin doesn’t pull back at all and continues back up…With no retraces?
Refer to the “GVC 5m Continuation” chart – As along as price can sustain above the 5m 50 ema cloud and the 50 itself, then we are of the impression bitcoin will continue to move higher at aim towards that key whole number 30K.
Now can you see how we took the logic from Euros breakdown last night at simply applied it to bitcoin…
This is the practise we want to be familiar with…because you will see it…Its a matter of finding the asset that gives the promise of it actually playing out.
SP 500 –
Today the SP 500 took traders on wild moves but man, if you were waiting for the 5m strategy to come into play once you started to see the red vectors, you would have seen a great return…
Look at the sp 500 chart attached…Do you see anything that we have discussed during the past few weeks?
You will probably say yeah Tino i see the vector candle recovery appearing, but how would I have been able to take the trade?
Look at how the SP 500 had been behaving.
After the sell off to the downside, do you see how the green vectors and the red vectors gave us the clue that things were going to change?
Do you see the last trap by the MM to mark price lower, trapping the short sellers (and recovering the green vector) to only reverse price back up…I can guarantee that price during this move was trading at the value area low for the session, which we know to be an area of reversals coming into play.
The next chart is suggesting (ES 500 GVC Zone) is implying that during tonight’s futures open, we will see price look to recover and then give us an insight into whether they decide to roll price over and continue beyond the 50 ema or create a continuation for higher prices…
Frankly, your ideal scenario is to use Asia and Uk as the setting up of price…What criteria are you sticking to before you get into the New York open? If your criteria is met by the New York open, then you will use the Brinks Box as the deciding factor of entry of a trade, and then the remaining time in new york session you are watching your play work out, and more so, focusing on whether your trade is even working out in your favor if it doesn’t once the birnks box is complete.
Telling you where price is going to go is pointless…Telling you what to be aware of and how it can develop, is going to test your ability as a trader as to whether you have the courage to test what you know or what you have seen in the chart developing into.
Euro –
Euro Price action has done the typical reversal to recover the green vector zone at the lows and is now starting to make a move back up.
I failed to attach the image to euros post last night which you can see has recovered the zones…But your attention is to be drawn to the red boxs…This is what is meant by Hunting for Setups, by exploring the “Intention” of price based on the past.
We are looking for the points in the chart that are likely to happen again, and if we see a vector candle zone near by, then we are going to assume that price is going to reach that zone, by means of structures we are familiar with.
If you look to the chart “15m Time Frame Euro” A potential play is being prepared.
This is soley on the structure of the 50 ema cloud…
So far the criteria is as follows:
Price is trading within the lower area of the 50EMA cloud…
What do we need to see?
We need to see price spend more time in the 50 ema lower cloud and not break lower. You are looking for wicks to the downside to appear but not break down, why? because the price has already dropped aggressively, so this could be a re-up to load up longs and start moving the price back up again…
it all holds in the current zone right now, as of writing this we are witnessing a green vector candle coming into play, which means that if it cant close strongly above the 50 ema lower band cloud, then we may see price drop from here.
So be on the lookout guys…
Forgive me if i am writing everything up these past couple of days.
I will be returning the Mini market maker in the morning (shes on half term)
and I will be getting back into the swing of video updates…
This week is going to be a huge one guys…
I will be updating you all before the New York opens tomorrow for the first setups that may be coming into play.
Mad Love
T
