Good evening all? I would normally do a video for you all however, I have nasty flu man so i will get a breakdown for you all…
EURUSD – So you will be aware I still have my Shorts in euro open still however i will be considering closing them on the idea that euro gaps down this evening at the open.
The first image i have attached draws your attention to how the volume profile is for euro…It is showing me that there is no consistent value being established. Look at how the value area (light blue) Has several high vol nodes. There is this choppy behavior with euro…We would ideally want the volume profile to be more compressed and closer as opposed to being spaced out as you can see in the image above.
Now I believe that Euro will gap down this evening.
Remember with Forex they will have all the information that has been released over the weekend coming out…
Mondays are usually the false move, which is why i want to draw your attention to the second image labeled “Euro Structure for the week”
So I am of the belief that we are preparing to drop lower with Euro…This means we expect DXY to hold out the current zone an return back up.
If they try to hold euro I expect the stop-run zone to be taken…But if the M formation holds out, price must hold within this zone and not break the two highs at the 1.09276 region…
If you are to run shorts on euro, attention must be drawn on dxy…
The “DXY SET UP” chart is what I anticipate from Dxy this week…
It all resides on that last green vector candle shaded in red. If dxy breaks down from this zone we can expect them to work towards the zones labeled which is where the W formation will be tested.
This week with the news we have nonfarm payrolls out on friday…
I’m only going to be focusing on the euro and DXY this week when trading because I believe they are going to be moving the majors more this week.
Ultimately If dxy shows support within the W Pattern at the current price point it would suggest to me they are accumulating dollars. with the intention of going back up…News will be the only reason that dxy moves up…If the news is bad, its good, that’s the story we are in right now.
Now USDJPY – it has been behaving differently this week, it’s been moving up slowly when in principle it should be dropping, so why is it not dropping…?
Yen…This means investors are not seeking safety in Yen and moving toward dollars…This is why I expect Dollar to start moving back up.
Now USDJPY has the same story as Dxy, the last area of support for USDJPy is at the red zone highlighted…If it breaks down from this zone then we would expect the recovery of the green vectors below towards last weeks psychological ranges which sit between 131.369 – 130.499.
Lastly, If they hold the current point in USDJPY, then price will attempt to move higher, they are showing the sequence of this (look to the red arrows)
NASDAQ 8HR –
Nasdaq and SP500 are so extended to the upside…
Nasdaq this week will continue higher until the news releases.
More so, the OPEC meeting impact will hit the markets and of course, the Nonfarm payrolls will also impact the indices.
I do not trust the move by Nasdaq or sp500. The Bonds market is still not moving higher and to make matters even more interesting, the Vix chart is in reversal zones seen as we have near enough recovered that last green vector candle region.
So given that we have a week of news…Again its all about whether you decide to pick an asset and swing trade it…Why? Because it could be a news prep week where price doesn’t do much until the news comes out.
I advise that if you choose to swing trade, make sure you are using small size to absorb any bold movements in the charts.
When it comes to scalping: We are focusing on the 5m Plays…With forex in the asian sessions, you will always have that dead gap time between the open at 10PM GMT towards the Tokyo open where price seems to be a bit tricky when it comes to forming the first high and low of asia…
I usually wait till new york open if i really want to trade on a monday…Because i use the Asian session high and low to establish my levels…
Which leads me to tomorrows update…I will give you guys a heads up before the New York Open…
This gives us enough time to establish if price can hold the asian session zones, whether it’s the high or low or mid point…The first asian session of the week is very important for the rest of the week because the psychological zones are formed during the first asian session in Forex.
Let’s see how these weekly plays work out…
Mad Love
T
