Good evening all…Enjoying yourselves?
So we kind of got the idea that bitcoin is likely to continue with its journey to the downside.
So do I simply say, bitcoin down?
As always, I want to see what bitcoin needs to do first to give me a reason to believe it will do what i think it will do?
Refer to the 12HR chart:
I am calling for Bitcoin to land at the 19218 zone within a 2 week period…Why?
Because bitcoin is following the Stock market and is receptive to news. It may not move aggressively when we anticipate it but it follows everything either in the US session or the US session.
What are my reason for this?
We have breached below the highest volume node of the volume profile…That node is at the 22952 zone…
The current price point for Bitcoin is starting to show us that the volume node at 22952 appears to have more people favoring sells within that zone as opposed to buys, wy? because we would assume the price would be moving up from this point. However, we know what the MM is doing, is he forcing retail longs to turn short whilst hitting liquidations?
Ask yourself where in the chart would he likely try the same thing?
Refer to the next image…Bitcoin on the 4hr…
There is a lot to consider in this chart on bitcoins’ likely journey…
If the 200 ema is broken in tonight’s Psy range, we are going to expect bitcoin to move lower toward the vector candle zone…It is at this point we may see the price make a move up once it takes that liquidity…
The ultimate zone of interest will be where I have labeled the two price points 21381 and 20667.
If price makes its way towards this zone…I would expect a volatile play here in the sense that we could see a sharp move because this is where the next high-volume nodes are presenting themselves.
Always anticipate retraces when specific zones with high-volume nodes are taken.
A high-volume node is where price transacts with the most volume between buyers and sellers… The more you see vectors appearing around this zone whether its green or red, the you are getting a better gauge on the interest of buyers and sellers in that zone.
Now let’s consider the smart money chart.
I have highlighted specific areas for you to explore where the smart money line crosses over the retail (red line) …Remember we use this chart to gauge the idea of investors putting money into the market and smart money profiting from retail traders…
IF we assume the current price action of that chart we can see the smart money is aggressively pointing upwards suggesting they are now “buying” as price is dropping.
We can assume that in the short term, the stock market is going to continue to drop and that would force assets across the board to drop aggressively.
In essence, we are looking for the retraces from the smart money line…When the smart money line goes down, it means they are selling into retail which means the price will start moving up across the board.
The next chart is the bitcoin Optix chart…I would anticipate that when bitcoin drops and the Blue line breaches the green dashed line, that would suggest investors are overly pessimistic…
Now take that idea with the smart money concept chart and assume that the smart money line would start to move down lower which means they are allowing price to move back up.
So once bitcoin optix chart shows investors are very pessimistic about bitcoin, that would be the trigger for smart money to reverse price back up and take on the liquidations of those who opened shorts.
The 12Hr hyblock chart is showing how many people are actually opening trades over this weekend…We dont usually see this many liquidations during the weekend but we can see that there are areas where the market maker can really take out traders.
So this leads me to the idea that when the Psy ranges form this evening…I would anticipate sharp reversals above the psy range.
So you want to wait till the Psy range high has been formed and locked in and pay attention to the vectors and especially the stopping volume candles that appear above the Psy range high in order to assume that they could be running to build shorts and bring price back down…
So if we look back over the last two weekends we have projected bitcoin to move down lower and it has taken a little while for that to be achieved but so far we are correct with our understanding of the MM trapping traders and moving price towards the vector candle recovery zones.
If you want to play it safe…You wait till tuesday…
If you decide to trade the Psy ranges this evening…
Just make sure you use light size and play around with practicing entries…
Forex update and Indices will be available tomorrow night…
Mad Love
T
