Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen…You will most likely need a coffee for this one.
Every pair mentioned in these comments I have included below. I will go into great detail regarding the hybrid system. This is a mental framework. It’s designed to get you to a point where if you have a trade on and it’s not working, you will refer to the specific zones we have discussed and ask yourself “Maybe my short is not working for me because there appears to be interest nearby that is higher”. The breakdown of assets below will help you become critical of a trader you are looking to take or are reluctant to hold
Why have I done this…Because I love programming my mind to absorb the various ways the hybrid behaves across assets. When you spend enough time going through charts you start to get a “Feel”.
So in tonight’s breakdown, I look at the following assets:
BITCOIN
Oil
Alibaba
XRP/QNT/GALA/ADA/SOL/DASH/ATOM/ILV/NEAR
EURUSD/GOLD/CADJPY/AUDJPY/USDJPY
The question that was asked was regarding having a balance of $1000.
Let’s have a conversation:
Bitcoin:
The first image attached is our projection of bitcoin prior to the news announcements on friday. Followed by how things are looking so far.
Let breakdown and itemise bitcoins current structure. NOTE: ALTCOINS will have similar attributes, you will see what i mean when you look at each chart.
Firstly refer to Bitcoins ADR on Friday. Notice how it came to the tip of the range. This suggests to me that the MM purposely sent price within this range to pull it back because they had achieved their desired trap of traders going long and attacking the shorts. Refer to the hyblock image.
So we are trying to understand if Bitcoin is going to drop or not.
Well In my opinion it will. But we want to know what it will do beforehand. ALWAYS ALWAYS ask yourself, what could they do BEFORE it happens? Trading is not simply drawing a line and hoping for Happy Days. They cannot move markets without making everyone think the opposite.
So we need to build in our minds the reasons why it goes higher before it goes down. You will ask yourself, hold up Tino, what if it simply drops from the current point? True, but there is always a point in the chart that you can use as a reference to justify you taking the trade.
So, In the chart above labeled “BTC Shorterm Breakdown” Pay close attention to the MM zone of Manipulation.
This area is going to decide if Bitcoin has more room to move higher or not. I am paying very close attention to the red vector on Bitcoin on the 4hr time frame. Refer to the MT4 chart. This could be a point that bitcoin may visit if the current zone we are discussing is invalidated.
What would cause the current zone we are talking to be invalidated?
If momentum is still maintained on the 1HR time frame and the 50 ema crosses over the 800 ema and holds…a return to the “Liquidity Run Zone/Previous Wick Zone” would need to be breached. Price would need to hold and consolidate in this zone.
Only if the news is not being presented could allow bitcoin to go towards this zone. e.g. CPI data.
We are at a critical point in the sense that the 17k whole number is being probed. This takes me back to the idea that this is a market maker zone of manipulation. It gets you questioning whether price will continue beyond this zone.
Well if you are a day trader, it does not matter because you will use the zones presented and act accordingly and place your trades based on bitcoins approach or rejection of these zones.
The current price point that bitcoin is at is above the weekly vwap zone which sits within the blue vector candle. Remember, no attempt back to this zone has been attempted.
within the weekly vwap zone we have a high volume node cluster of interest. If bitcoin comes back down towards this zone and fails to hold, it would be trading below the 50 and then if price cannot sustain the interest, price will break down and work towards this week psy ranges which sit at the 16600 zone.
The question you have to ask yourself is: Do I swing trade on the idea that bitcoin will come back up towards that red vector which sits at 18k. Or do I scalp the specific ones in the chart and act based on what we understand to be present in those zones, e.g. points of control/high volume nodes, Liquidity Run zones?
Refer to the 4hr time frame if you are a swing trader: Attached above…Only by the principle that Bitcoin is on a cyclical move to the upside on the higher time frame could this be achieved before they really attack the lows. Notice that 50% of the Violet vector on the 4hr could only be attacked if bitcoin can break above the previous wick which sits at the 17062…If the zone cannot be breached, then we would have more of a conviction that bitcoin starts to drop lower from the current price point.
My analysis is based on the swing trader or the scalper…Make sure you determine what you are doing. Do not be the swing trader trying to scalp the zones mentioned. Don’t be the scalper trying to swing trade the zones mentioned. Swing traders wait longer for confirmation, scalpers get it sooner. Make the distinction.
For the scalper. they are trading either towards the zones mentioned in the chart or away.
My projection of bitcoin to 8k is too far to consider right now. We are in a zone where the trap is being formulated to get enough people to think lower price action cannot happen.
Remember…Bears stand up before they attack. You are effectively waiting for the bear to drop and attack. The higher they stand, the stronger the attack.
OIL –
Oil has achieved a 3 x adr move to the downside. So this concludes the idea of a cycle. Now we are within a zone that appears to be preparing for a potential move-up. Please be mindful that oil is prone to news at any given moment. Traders tend to run to commodities when things are not good. its all about what chinas next move is doing, so those of you trading oil, keep aware of what is happening in china as oil is prone to whatever thier next move is regarding the Covid policy and reopening.
By the principle of the Hybrid. The green vector below which happens to be the previous cycle that started the move higher for oil is an interesting point of interest if the current zone breaks down and they cannot recover above the “Zone of rejection” If they recover this zone, I would expect oil to breach up towards the 78 zone. This is on the assumption that a new Peak formation is about to be created to the upside and the current point of control will hold.
ALIBABA –
When it comes to stock, there are more fundamentals of the flow of capital that need to mention.
What i look for is the purchases that lead to volume coming into play. Notice the chart (circled in blue) volume comes in out of nowhere. Now, this is a problem in the marketplace because you can see each attempt up has been met with resistance back down. So we are looking for a price to hold above $80 before we can consider a potential purchase (hypothetically). Volume didnt really manage to come in above the 50 day vol average (red line) circled blue. Remember with any stock, they move up and come back down. Stocks are very prone to interest rates, so consider Alibabas Debt…If they were to refinance on the new rates how badly will it affect the stock and future business? Given that Alibaba has only 14% of Debt it would appear that they are not heavily prone to interest rate exposure.
Notice the quarterly earnings, they are slowing down and not accelerating, this is a sign that business is reflecting the slow down economically.
Pay attention to the Funds ownership. It has reduced since September and the current quarter in December shows that reduction. January’s data will suggest if funds are off loading this stock, which is why I say wait to see if they can hold this stock above $80.
UFI – In this stock you can see it trades with very little volume and is currently one of the worst performers in its sector.
Although price had moved up during fridays madness, volume was below average.
Consider the quarterly performance..It is decreasing quite bad, more so Funds are getting rid of the stock as you can see the drop that happened since september going to December. .
XRP –
This is the situation with Alt coins.
Whatever Bitcoin does the altcoins will follow suit. Yet ALT coins will move faster.
Zones to consider with XRP. Particular attention must be drawn to the wick which sits within the MM zone of manipulation.
Altcoins can move faster so a breach of this could be on the cards.
The only way we would see this is if the current price point can hold the point of control that is marked in the chart. Price is holding above the 50 ema on the 1hr which sits at the POC of the volume profile which takes into consideration that mad wick down below.
DO not ignore this wick if you are swing trading.
XRP is a classic example of a scalper trading towards zones of interest. IF the trader believes XRP can climb from this point he would hold his trade until the next point of interest which would be that wick. But they must be mindful of the last sell-off point which sits at the 0.3462 zone.
QNT –
An interesting set of behaviors by QNT. Remember, linked to bitcoin so always monitor bitcoins commitment and movement.
Notice the attempts above the 800 ema which naturally leads the price down again. The only logical approach to this one is to assume the MM will trap more longs.
The marked-off zone is the manipulation zone, so expect fast price movement in this zone. as always the 50 ema is below price we assume the momentum to the upside is present. But we are trying to figure if the behavior around the 800ema will persist.
GALA – Well do i really need to discuss what Gala has done?
Always keep in your mind, fast moves by Altcoins, will always lead to fast moves in the opposite direction.
Let’s assume it comes down and holds the 50 ema. This is where you would make the assumption that they would attempt another move up. You are looking for the 50 to land at price, volume to be light and the moment you start seeing green vectors appearing at the lows of the range, consider they could be attempts by the MM to hold price in anticipation of another move higher. Look what XRP did a while back after that sharp move up…Started a mad sell-off after, so be careful with longs on this one.
ADA –
ADA is currently working on previous vectors with the idea it could continue. However, we have achieved a full cyclical play with ada and the peak could be forming.
The test off the 50 ema (refer to zoomed-in chart) grants us the idea that if this is the peak creation, one more attempt higher could be on the cards before ADA starts to work its way back down. No attempts at the previous vectors have been tested which you must always be aware of.
If ada is to attempt the higher red vectors a breach of 0.2865 would need to be achieved.
Remember, when assets move continuously higher, you are looking for green vectors to appear with volume above average which would imply the climatic move which is the trap the MM sets to get the longs committed.
SOLANA –
Now solana is doing what I would want GALA to be doing.
The 50 ema is compressed and they are spiking price and instantly returning back into the zone.
Do not ignore the green vector lower.
IF Solana is going to attempt another move up. 14.29 must be broken with conviction (green vectors and 50 ema must be below price)
But let me draw your attention to something.
Look at the volume below. The first time they tried to get above the $15 zone, there was more selling from that point, with very little volume from the MM to push price higher.
Now lets jump to sols recent price action and you notice Huge green vector candles appearing trying to push price up but FAILING to get even above $15.
So that leaves me with one conviction. Could Solana be ready to drop from this zone? IS the basis of the 50 ema already trapped the traders?
focusing on volume when you see these structures makes you question the validity of a move up.
Aligned with the macros across the board, if Solana is to make a move up it will be short-lived. the return to vectors will drastically improve if they cannot get or break the price above $15.
DASH –
Given that i have addressed dash in the youtube channel making the assumption that the devs have left, the market maker is still obliged to fullfill his expectations as a liquidity provider.
Now consider dash on the 4hr time frame…Notice how we have recovered the red vector candle and volume has now disappeared within this recovery zone. Yes it is the weekend so that plays a part. But we have to consider the fact that if the cyclical play by Dash has come to an end, are they preparing for the drop.
Dash has one last attempt at testing the 50 ema. If it cannot hold this zone, then that would be grounds for a move lower. Pay close attention to whether red vectors appear in this zone as no vectors have presented themselves on the 4 hr, so once the market opens you are waiting to see if volume starts to pick up. I have noticed that all the green vectors have been recovered on the way up. So if the 50 holds, then one last attempt at the $48 zone would solidify the “Climactic” point in the chart that would trap the longs to reverse back down.
ATOM
Interesting drift by atom to the upside. it appears to have found resistance towards the $10.465 mark. Why? Again, pull up the chart and look at Atom when it made the high of $10.643. We have had more volume come in at the current price point, yet not attempted towards that zone. Are we seeing a pattern here?
The structure of ATOM suggests to me that if they can hold the 50 ema, then we would assume a potential FTD play is being formed here.
Again, if the Climatic candle comes in, then a breach above the $10.643 zone would need to be recovered and retested, to attempt higher price points.
But consider ATOMS’ journey, it has been continuously climbing.
Vectors have not been returned, only the vectors at the highest point. Could this suggest a peak formation?
ILV –
This chart kinda gives me the same vibe as the rest of the Alts we have discussed. Look at the attempts the MM keeps marking price higher with no progress.
When in bear markets, moves up are short-lived. The fast they move higher the more inclined they are to drop. ILV gives me the idea that All the green vectors that are appearing yet not achieving clear ground higher is suggesting to me that many shorts are being prepared. Notice the reluctance to break above the $40 dollar zone…Let’s assume that they hod the 50 ema, then the zones they ove price towards would be consistent with ILV behavior over all. Trap worthy and wickyful…This suggests to me that MM really plays this coin given that it may be low on liquidity.
WELCOME TO THE DARK SIDE
EURUSD – Now we have been paying quite a bit of attention to EURUSD.
We are assuming the cyclical move to the downside.
yet with the news play euro came back into and towards the PSY ranges…We had said in previous videos and updates that the only way euro would invalidate the cyclical play to the downside would be if they breached the psy ranges…Even with this big move up they took…They just couldnt do it.
Refer to the video “pre news plays” in the patreon where we discuss this, i have attached the image above for you referring to the zone and the final area of the red vector candle they could take.
Now lets refer to the next EUR image (updated) “Eur failing psy zones” .
Notice how in this chart, as they moved up, they recovered the red vector then finalised the last red vector before the news came out.
Pay close attention to EUROS volume at the lows. It disappeared towards the close.
No vector recovery. Yet still in line with a move lower as it has failed to get above the structure of the M formation.
So If this is going to be “pump before the dump” scenario, we would expect euro at least to recover the green vector down below.
What better way to trap traders long after trapping them short over the past few days.
If euro is to try and continue with its move up, i would expect the 1.0700 zone to be tested, by the principle of the whole number theory. Why? because orders are sat there. Now if im a MM and I want more shorts, i will get them filled by hitting that 1.0700 zone and then attempt to keep them committed. The only way the cyclical move down is invalidated is if the 1.07355 region is broken and moves away. Price can still hit this zone and snap back down…Sunday night open will determine if this is the case.
I am still expecting EURO to drop and complete the move to the downside which would be the 2 level drop.
Eyes on the 800ema, if price comes down to this point, would trigger the sells and price would aggressively work the level 2 drop. Remember, like the altcoins above, How is it that the price has traveled up and yet not really gained much ground?
GOLD –
Day traders with gold, be careful. Gold has been the go to in the sense of safety for investors. The daily time frame for Gold is suggesting that if the economy continues to slow down, will investors turn to GOLD…
Assuming that gold is in a cyclical move to the upside, one would assume that Bitcoin would follow gold but it has not been showing the same behavior.
What you are looking for with Gold, is the same with Oil, mentioned above.
The two places investors go to when times are hard is commodities or cash.
If the dollar index rises, naturally gold will pullback against the dollar.
However what has been happening is Dollar has been consolidating and moving up with gold in some instances.
Consider the chart with the highlighted zones.
Notice how Dollar would be rising with gold and then drop with gold.
What is happening here?
When gold goes up, if you have Net dollar longs (own dollars) when you sell gold at high points with a strong dollar, you are getting more value in terms of dollars back.
Now if we look at the chart we are at a point where if traders were to get rid of gold, it would be lower in terms of dollars back…So we are in essence waiting for dollar to climb back up ever so slightly against gold, and we would make the assumption that if gold is holding at a specific point, then traders with Net longs in dollar would start selling their gold positions to effectively achieve a “higher value return” in dollars.
So with gold we need to keep a close eye on day trading opportunities where the dollar is trading higher and gold is moving higher and we can exploit drops in gold…
It is also important to notice that Gold has been rising since Nov 22. No test of the daily 50 ema with potential resistance towards the 1879.
CADJPY/AUDJPY/USDJPY
All three of the fx pairs have one thing in common.
They are led by Dollar.
If the dollar drops, so do these pairs.
Now lets consider the following. Every single one of the pairs has a huge green vector candle that has not been fully recovered yet.
We must consider the following:
All three of the assets are forming what appears to be a lovely W formation.
So if the strength goes against the YEN, then these patterns will play out to the upside.
Focus on the YEN against these pairs…You can see that the YENs move up could be finalized once it recovers that red vector zone.
So all three patterns we see on the yen pairs could be preparing to complete the level 1 accumulation zone.
Use the yen chart above to find relationships between the yen pairs. Remember, it doesnt pay the YEN to be strong as it will affect trade for them. They need a really deflated yen.
Lots to get through guys. That should cover you this weekend.
Once monday opens you should have a good idea of what to expect.
By principle of forex and the hybrid system. We will wait till mondays close to determine if they are ready to complete any patterns we have mentioned above.
Lets see how everything plays out guys…
Mad Love
T
