What’s good guys?
So tonight I am taking the time to break down bitcoins price action.
I can simply say I expect bitcoin to go up or down, but why are you here? My goal is to get you to approach the charts in a systematic way and predetermine the probability of price following the above journey.
I may be completely wrong, but the concepts I mention in this post will be useful for you to take with you in your trading.
So let’s go…
Main chart (10-Hour Bitcoin)
This chart gives you the bigger picture of the behavior of price and how you can use previous price action to determine the probability of price “repeating” the same behavior.
Remember, We are not out to predict the market’s next move, we want to understand the impact of previous moves that we know about, which can result in a potential move up or down. Trading is all about educated guesses, no matter what way you sugarcoat it…
Consider the blue lines in the chart (10 Hour) These are points where the MM had absorbed commitment from Retail, triggered stops, and reversed price…
Pay close attention to the Big Wick which has only been recovered by 50%. (I am referring to the first blue lines between 16900 and 17000 in the 10hr chart)
What do these zones tell you…If you recall the price during the print of these candles, it was where MM was really aggressively hitting price to the highs to gain the commitment and hit those poor short sellers’ liquidations.
I look at these zones and say to myself ” this is where the price can eventually move towards if the common interest in bitcoin (on the assumption that they keep the price moving sideways) that if it’s not going down, I will go long if it’s not going up I will go short…Retail traders are not patient. They need action…But always catch it too late.
The two blue lines below, this is where it gets interesting…Notice how there are more candles above these zones where we have very few wicks to the upside, yet the two blue lines below show where the MM really goes to work on retail and moves aggressively away from those zones. Notice the several wicks to the left of the chart that have been recovered…This tells me that they appear to be finished with this zone…The interest is not there to move prices higher at the chances they had.
Now the 5-hour time frame shows an interesting story. That huge green vector candle…It SCREAMS vector recovery. But it’s the journey it will take before it goes to that point. Yeah, I can say it’s going to go there but I want you to understand why I think this…
Notice there is nothing in this range…What are we even doing talking about the charts at this time?… You will come to a point in your trading where you become so particular about your trade selection process…So when you buy a car, do you buy the car straight away? Nah bruv, you ask about the history of the car, what do I need to know about the car that may affect me in the future? Same in trading, what is the chart doing now that could affect me in the future if I take a trade with no preparation? Why the hell would you try testing your understanding on the weekends when there is minimal movement…If you can guarantee that price will move at a specific point at the weekend then you would put the house down, yet I see many people say ” I will only open a small position to test my understanding of the markets” Do you prefer to play a computer at chess or a human? During the week, Humans move markets… on Weekends, it’s AI…Even the market maker kicks back and reflects on the blood bath of liquidity runs he absorbed during the best times (Tuesday Wednesday Thursday).
Rant over…Back to the 5hr chart…Pull it up and look at it…Notice the fact that the highest wick to the left of the chart, had been attempted by (refer to the blue line at the 17K wick) but couldn’t gain further ground. Does this suggest they are building shorts above the 17k range?
Can we assume ONE more attempt towards the 17k zone but not get above the blue line wick candle?
Now we get into the lower time frame, to really gauge the behavior and the development of this behavior.
Refer to the 1hour time frame chart…
Now we have a lot more to understand…
Ask yourself…Why this behavior? Why not?
Particular attention is to be drawn to the Vector Pushes zones…What are these points? This is where you can determine the strength of a vector candle to understand if its presence is to move the price higher to come back down, (green vector) or pushes the price down lower to bring it back up (red Vector).
The vector pushes zones…The best way to identify if they will play out in your favor, establish in the chart where they had previously tried to move higher and not succeed at it…Look at the Sydney session green vector that happened on Friday…Big push-up and didn’t gain much ground, which only led to bitcoin dropping lower…This is a vector push zone…They attempt to trap traders and simply make them pay with the move in the opposite direction.
With the vector pushes zones, if you see fewer vectors and they are larger, a significant zone would need to be broken to establish if they are looking to come away from that point. But the easier way of working out direction is when you see a collection of them in the sequence of 3s.
If you refer to the 15m time frame, you can see the vector push principle. Look at today’s daily open price, can you see the green vector candles pushing upwards, not gaining ground? Has the same happened shortly after they forced price lower? Notice how the next green vectors pushing up towards the daily open, can’t make it above the previous? This is a vector push zone, suggesting they are forcing the price up to bring it back down…Can one assume we will expect a bigger push-up to move down even more aggressively?
Another factor to mention is the weekly vwap on the same 1hr time frame chart…
Why is the price moving up above it to only come back down…? Are institutional traders looking at getting their sells above the weekly vwap? and collect the shorts?
This is why I have come to the conclusion that bitcoin may attempt a spike up, which is where you have that sell stop zone which is the “Trigger Point” for retail…Because if they see a big move up from this point, it’s deemed as support…Again, you want to see the vector coming up and really pushing out of the zone, if you start seeing prices moving up and they simply go nowhere, you know MM is trying to trap.
Below you will see a few sentences talking about V shape zones and the speed of candles…
This zone is where the recovering vector candle will start the manipulation of this zone…If Bitcoin can break down towards this zone then expect very fast candles to appear, sharp vectors ( watch the 1m and 2m time frames to grab those 50 ema deviations v shape plays, refer to the Masterclass sessions on the tradersreality.com website on a deeper dive on the V shape play)
Conclusion:
I believe bitcoin will go down………..
Jokes aside…Trading on the weekend will always create doubt as to whether you will achieve profit based on the behavior of price right now.
Your goal is to prepare yourself…The psychological ranges will be forming this evening…are you going to trade the creation of these zones?
Or will Sunday night give you the signal?
I always like to update you guys on the idea that I am expecting movement by bitcoin at some point…
It may just happen tonight.
Mad Love
T
